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Weekend Moisture Increase

Surge of tropical moisture works its way into the Brazos Valley this weekend
Credit: KAGS
Surge in tropical moisture over the weekend leading to showers & storms

BRYAN, Texas — One last dry day across the Brazos Valley on Thursday before moisture begins to work its way into the region on Friday through the weekend.

A high that has been centered over eastern parts of Texas will begin to build farther east by Friday. This will place the Brazos Valley on the western edge of the high, allowing the surface flow around the high to pull in a nice surge of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into Texas.

The moisture increase will be noticeable on Friday (see Fig. 1) with the deepest moisture moving in on Saturday & Sunday (see Fig. 2 & 3).

Credit: KAGS
Figure 1
Credit: KAGS
Figure 2
Credit: KAGS
Figure 3

The increased moisture will be paired with small, periodic disturbances rotating into southern Texas over the weekend. These small disturbances are associated with a weak low just offshore of the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula (not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone), which will help trigger afternoon storms on Friday (see Fig. 4), Saturday (see Fig. 5) & Sunday (see Fig. 6). The best chance for rain will arrive Saturday afternoon. Some of the rain may be heavy. 

Credit: KAGS
Figure 4
Credit: KAGS
Figure 5
Credit: KAGS
Figure 6

KAGS Meteorologists are tracking a possible pattern change by late next week. Numerical guidance is suggesting a cold front may move into Texas late next week. This *may be our first taste of fall. Still a lot of uncertainty but keep checking back for updates on this scenario.

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