TEXAS, USA — As we continue to advance through spring, it appears April will be warm and dry for a good chunk of the lower-48.
La Niña has helped influence the weather over the past several months but all indications are that La Niña will continue to wane over the coming weeks. La Niña has already begun to weaken, and as this continues, we are expected to move toward neutral conditions. When neutral ENSO conditions develop, this leads to warmer and drier than average conditions for a good part of the lower-48 during the spring season, including here in Texas.
Essentially the weather pattern becomes less active. This does not mean rain and brief shots of cold cannot occur, however. So, there will still be the opportunity for severe thunderstorms across the country. Do not let your guard down! The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center reflects the neutral conditions developing and indicates April will feature warm and dry conditions for a good chunk of the lower-48.
The best chance for warmer than average temperatures will occur from Texas north through the Plains. This is where there is the best shot for above average temperatures. Above average temperatures look likely for the East Coast, too. The one area that may see below average temperatures is the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation will likely be near to below average for the entire lower-48 with the one exception being near the Canadian border in the Northern Plains.
The warmer and drier conditions will continue to exacerbate the worsening drought conditions across Texas, possibly leading to enhanced wildfire potential by late-Spring.