BRYAN, Texas — Monitoring a high-impact storm system & Arctic cold front that will impact the Brazos Valley by mid-week. A potent upper-level low is currently off of the West Coast and will advance east through early week. The approach of the storm system will help Gulf moisture work its way into Texas, including the Brazos Valley. A few storms will develop as early as late-Monday across eastern Texas as moisture increases and weak upper-level energy moves in from the southwest. These storms may produce some small hail but severe weather is not expected due to limited instability & non-favorable shear profiles.
The storm system will continue to approach on Tuesday and begin to amplify. This will help an Arctic airmass dive south across the Plains. This Arctic cold front will move into the Brazos Valley late in the day on Tuesday. Wind chills will quickly fall into the 20s & 30s. This boundary will help trigger a few thunderstorms but the front will move so quickly, it will act to undercut the updrafts. This will limit severe potential for the Brazos Valley. However, farther east, instability will be better & shear profiles will be more favorable for isolated severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas. The main hazards appear to be damaging winds & large hail but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
The focus then shifts on the dropping temperatures and the wintry threat. The aforementioned Arctic front will move through the entire Brazos Valley by Wednesday morning. At the same time, the approaching storm system will increase lift & moisture across the region. Numerous showers & isolated non-severe storms will develop across Texas in the cold airmass. Initially, the airmass will be just above freezing in the Brazos Valley on Wednesday at the surface. Going higher up in the atmosphere, temperatures will be below freezing (red line), which means snow will fall but melt just before reaching the surface. Farther north into northern Texas, wintry precipitation will fall beginning late-Tuesday. It appears north Texas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, will see a freezing rain & sleet mixture late Tuesday through early Wednesday. As colder air aloft moves in, the precipitation will change to snow.
Farther south in the Brazos Valley, the freezing line will begin shifting south late-Wednesday into early Thursday. At this time, the main trough will work its way into the region, generating another area of lift. This will allow wintry precipitation to fall across the northern half of the Brazos Valley overnight Wednesday into early Thursday. It appears sleet & snow are possible if enough moisture can stick around with the colder air moving in. It is too early to forecast exact details and there are a lot of questions that need to be answered but a wintry threat does exist overnight Wednesday. The best window for wintry precipitation in the Brazos Valley is from 10:00 pm Wednesday through 6:00 am Thursday.
Accumulations look minimal in the Brazos Valley but this is subject to change so keep checking back for details. Farther north, in northern Texas, significant accumulations of freezing rain, snow & sleet look possible, which will impact travel and electricity.
